2011: My Top Five Predictions for Technology

For many years, I started the New Year with a “top 10” list of network predictions.   Call it the Twitter effect, or even the Charles Barkley/Dwyane Wade/T-Mobile “who’s in your five” effect , this year I am coming in with “my 5.”

Prediction 1: The Battle for the Cloud is really about the next generation business OS – Much of the debate over the cloud is about competing architectures or proposals for either a) the infrastructure stack or b) a class of applications delivered on or off-premise.  Another way to look at the cloud is the “run-time” OS that supports a range of applications and business processes.  It could be Linux, Windows or a range of software engines, but when the (virtual) applications are delivered from virtual infrastructure, from the cloud, the rules of the technology industry are being re-written.

Prediction 2: Networked Technology Economics are Paramount - Traditionally, IT was seen as a cost structure in support of the business (or public sector) service delivery.   Increasingly, technology is part of the product, thus the actual cost of the product/service is in flux.   One clear example of this occurred in the past few years in the music industry.  More recently, the movie rental industry demonstrated this (whereby video streaming is replacing bricks and mortar).  Prediction within prediction: if a product or service can be delivered faster and more efficiently across a network, it will become the dominant delivery or consumption model within 5 years.

Prediction 3: Books go the way of music – There are two key drivers in the book industry today: pressure on the physical retail environments from eCommerce providers like Amazon as well as what we saw during the much of the holiday shopping season: an increased array of eBook readers, including a 3rd generation Kindle from Amazon, the BeBook Neo, The Barnes & Noble Nook, and the Sony Reader. Both of these trends are driving dramatic change in the availability, consumption and economics of our reading matter.

Prediction 4: Consumer Experience for Business – For decades, technology migrated from the office to the home: video recorders, computers, printers, Internet access, email and many other commonplace fruits of applied science started in the working world and eventually followed us through the front door on the return commute.  Today, mobile and web-based applications, and simple, easy-to-use technologies like Cisco’s own Flip video camcorder are changing our expectations of how IT works.  Shoppers walk into stores with more powerful devices and apps than the retail associates trying to help them.  Expect business users to demand migration of consumer experiences to the workplace.

Prediction 5: Cohen’s Unified Technology Theory of Coffee Price Increases – A little over 14 years ago, Tom Friedman, in his column in the New York Times, posited an early version of his “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention.”  Tom noted: “when a country reaches a certain level of economic development, when it has a middle class big enough to support a McDonald’s, it becomes a McDonald’s country, and people in McDonald’s countries don’t like to fight wars; they like to wait in line for burgers.”

Here is my corollary theory: coffee prices will increase in those countries where a larger percentage of the economy is dependent on high technology industries and is growing faster than other nations.    A recent report issued by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted uneven growth around the world, with mixed performance in many developed economies and strong economic growth in many developing countries.

Countries such as India, China, Brazil and Indonesia are on the rise and so is coffee consumption in those nations.  Indeed urbanization – with its associated acceleration of technology production and consumption – is directly related to coffee consumption.

Of my 5 predictions, I am most confident about the last!   Also, to see an excellent set of predictions for IT and the Education sector, check out the top 10 of my colleague Lev Gonick, CIO of Case Western Reserve University.

Happy New Year.

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Fashion Forward With Technology

It’s a new year and with that, lots of predictions abound for what to expect for 2011. One area that promises to see some dramatic and exciting changes: retail and fashion. Now, anyone who knows me knows that that is right up my alley. And what a bonus that Cisco plays a central role, as Lindsay Parker blogged about recently.

According to a survey reported in The Chicago Tribune, one in four moms who are on social media sites makes purchases based on friends’ recommendations.  One of Interbrand’s big predictions for the new year is a strong focus on the customer journey. When we look at what’s happening from the customer’s perspective, it’s clear that there’s a real opportunity to drive the game forward. And when you talk about fashion and luxury brands, the stakes become even higher. How do you create an intimate brand experience that conveys high-scale when you don’t have the power of in-person interaction?

This week, I’ll be in Paris talking about one of my favorite topics—Borderless Networks—and how it’s helping fashionista brands rethink their business models. We’ve known for years that the web has allowed us to extend our reach to customers but as e-commerce matures, the internet and its related tools and applications are increasingly being used by retailers to innovate and differentiate. And that means building deeper customer relationships that are reminiscent of the old days of personal, face-to-face interactions, but within a virtual context.

For 2011 and beyond, I’m betting the name of the game will be customer intimacy without borders.

View the original article here

2011: My Top Five Predictions for Technology

For many years, I started the New Year with a “top 10” list of network predictions.   Call it the Twitter effect, or even the Charles Barkley/Dwyane Wade/T-Mobile “who’s in your five” effect , this year I am coming in with “my 5.”

Prediction 1: The Battle for the Cloud is really about the next generation business OS – Much of the debate over the cloud is about competing architectures or proposals for either a) the infrastructure stack or b) a class of applications delivered on or off-premise.  Another way to look at the cloud is the “run-time” OS that supports a range of applications and business processes.  It could be Linux, Windows or a range of software engines, but when the (virtual) applications are delivered from virtual infrastructure, from the cloud, the rules of the technology industry are being re-written.

Prediction 2: Networked Technology Economics are Paramount - Traditionally, IT was seen as a cost structure in support of the business (or public sector) service delivery.   Increasingly, technology is part of the product, thus the actual cost of the product/service is in flux.   One clear example of this occurred in the past few years in the music industry.  More recently, the movie rental industry demonstrated this (whereby video streaming is replacing bricks and mortar).  Prediction within prediction: if a product or service can be delivered faster and more efficiently across a network, it will become the dominant delivery or consumption model within 5 years.

Prediction 3: Books go the way of music – There are two key drivers in the book industry today: pressure on the physical retail environments from eCommerce providers like Amazon as well as what we saw during the much of the holiday shopping season: an increased array of eBook readers, including a 3rd generation Kindle from Amazon, the BeBook Neo, The Barnes & Noble Nook, and the Sony Reader. Both of these trends are driving dramatic change in the availability, consumption and economics of our reading matter.

Prediction 4: Consumer Experience for Business – For decades, technology migrated from the office to the home: video recorders, computers, printers, Internet access, email and many other commonplace fruits of applied science started in the working world and eventually followed us through the front door on the return commute.  Today, mobile and web-based applications, and simple, easy-to-use technologies like Cisco’s own Flip video camcorder are changing our expectations of how IT works.  Shoppers walk into stores with more powerful devices and apps than the retail associates trying to help them.  Expect business users to demand migration of consumer experiences to the workplace.

Prediction 5: Cohen’s Unified Technology Theory of Coffee Price Increases – A little over 14 years ago, Tom Friedman, in his column in the New York Times, posited an early version of his “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention.”  Tom noted: “when a country reaches a certain level of economic development, when it has a middle class big enough to support a McDonald’s, it becomes a McDonald’s country, and people in McDonald’s countries don’t like to fight wars; they like to wait in line for burgers.”

Here is my corollary theory: coffee prices will increase in those countries where a larger percentage of the economy is dependent on high technology industries and is growing faster than other nations.    A recent report issued by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted uneven growth around the world, with mixed performance in many developed economies and strong economic growth in many developing countries.

Countries such as India, China, Brazil and Indonesia are on the rise and so is coffee consumption in those nations.  Indeed urbanization – with its associated acceleration of technology production and consumption – is directly related to coffee consumption.

Of my 5 predictions, I am most confident about the last!   Also, to see an excellent set of predictions for IT and the Education sector, check out the top 10 of my colleague Lev Gonick, CIO of Case Western Reserve University.

Happy New Year.

View the original article here